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Covid19 – Data shows happy days will have to wait…

While the lockdown has been extended in India due to Corona Virus Pandemic, various states are showing spike in cases. While new states are showing some disturbing trends. Is this the explosion that we were waiting for? Are we on the path of US and Europe?

Lockdown 2.0 was supposed to get over today. Unfortunately, Lockdown 3.0 has been announced and we are now sitting at the cusp of 40K cases. We have gone from 20K cases to 40K cases in less than 2weeks, whereas the first 20K cases came in 2.5 months. Various states are showing a spike in cases, while new states are showing some disturbing trends. Is this the explosion that we were waiting for? Are we on the path of the US and Europe?

We look at the data and try to form a picture of the situation of India. We also take a look at the Indian States in clusters of the Encouraging States, the Worry States and the Emerging Bad. We also use CPM19 to see if we can predict how 17th May 2020 may look like for India.

Recovery Rate Update

We had introduced the recovery rate as a new parameter in our last article. In the 10 days that have passed since our last article, let us look at the recovery rates now. Green means improved from the last article and red means deterioration from the last article. Yellow means no significant change.

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Except for Spain all countries have either improved their recovery rates or stayed the same. France continues to recover poorly.

India With the World

India is on its 49th day after the 100th case. The 7 day rolling average of the growth rate for the country is 5.95%. When, compared with other countries studied it is the highest among all countries on their 49th day (See table)

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India, has clearly not followed the 42 day theory. To counter this we hypothesized that India should be treated as an amalgamation of several different countries. Hence, we broke India in 7 different parts basis cases reported. Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu were taken separately and assumed to be a separate country. The remaining states were considered as ROI. When we look at it in this format, most of the states with a high number of cases are still at least 9-10 days away from the 42-day mark, except Maharashtra.

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As, it can be observed by the above table, most of the states are considerably slower than the other countries in the study as on that day. Even Maharashtra is slower than USA on the 40th day. ROI which is on its 45th day is also on the cusp of crossing below the 5% threshold. ROI had crossed the 5% threshold on the 42nd day but due to emergence of cases in Punjab it has gone above the 5% threshold again today.

India and Its States

In previous articles we had identified clusters of the state as

  • The Worry States – These were the states that had shown high growth in lockdown 1.0. These states were Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajashtan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal
  • The Encouraging States – These states were those that had shown signs of slowness in lockdown 1.0. These states are Andhra Pradesh, Harayana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telengana

In this article we introduce a new category

  • The Emerging Bad – These states have shown sudden spurt of cases in lockdown 2.0. These states are Bihar and Punjab.

The Worry States

The Good news is that all the “Worry States”, 7 day rolling average of growth rates has now come below 10% (See Graph). The bad news is that even at this rate these states will continue to add somewhere between 1500 to 2000 cases daily.

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As you can see in the graph, states are showing trends of slowing down with UP and Rajasthan seemingly going below 5%, but until states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi come well below 5% there is little hope of a slowdown in these “Worry States”

These states are characterized by

  • High Positive% – The Positive%, which is total cases upon total tests is very high for these states. Except for UP and Rajasthan, the positive% is higher than 4% (the national average). Maharashtra and Delhi have a positive% higher than 7%
  • Low Outcome % – Only 26% of the cases have seen an outcome in these states. Outcome means that either a recovery or death has happened in that particular case. This is lower than the national average of 30%
  • Low Recovery Rate – The recovery rate is 86% which means in these states out of 100 outcomes, 86 people recovered. For states like Gujarat, Maharashtra and West Bengal it is lower than 80% which means that for every 4 people who recover there is one death.
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We will keep a watch on these three parameters to see if they improve over time.

The Encouraging States

Most of the states are now well settled under 5% growth rate except for Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Andhra Pradesh also seems to be moving towards the 5% mark. Tamil Nadu is one blip on these states as after being well below 5% for a while it has now started moving up and has broken the 5% threshold. Tamil Nadu will be the state to watch

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These States are Characterized by

  • Low Positive% – Most of the states are well below 2% except Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Telangana also might be an aberration as the state has not updated its test numbers since 29th April.
  • High Outcome% – Almost 50% of the cases have seen an outcome in these states. Except for Andhra Pradesh, almost all states have an outcome% higher than 50%
  • High Recovery Rate – All the states have a recovery rate in excess of 90%. This means for every death in these states there are 9 people who recover. Kerala and Harayana infact are almost at 100% recovery rate.
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The Emerging Bad

Bihar and Punjab have shown growth trends in the past seven days that has motivated us to look at these states closely

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These states have a poor outcome%(this is because recency of cases) , although they seem to be doing okay with respect to recovery rate and positive%. These states will be monitored closely

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17th May 2020 – Where will we be?

The lockdown continues till 17th May 2020 albeit with some ease in restrictions. With economic activity starting again, the situation does not look like improving in the next two weeks. Using CPM19 we have tried to make some predictions as to where we might be on 17th May.

Although our daily growth rate will go down below 5%, but in terms of cases reported we will be hitting a peak by 17th May.

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Total cases according to the CPM19 Model will hit 75K. Our exponential growth curve would have started flattening but as of now it seems it will flatten only after reaching 100K cases.

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We have been in lockdown now for 40 days. In these 40 days we have ensured that we dont have a situation that overwhelms our medical system. But we have also failed to flatten the curve. At this juncture, if we see another exponential growth then Indian numbers will be very high and will probably end up going well past Europe by end of May. Instead of easing lockdown, the need of the hour is for a more stricter lockdown. Easing will just increase cases. Also as temperature is not playing any role in stopping this pandemic, India faces some tough days ahead.

On a brighter note, India seems to recovering well from the Covid19 with high recovery rates. If this trend continues then we may have a situation like Germany, high infections but low mortality rates. All we can now do is to try to stay as safe as possible because the next few days are going to be very risky.

About the Author

Sanjeev Prakash is an Analytics and Marketing professional with more than 12 years of experience in Analytics, Data Management, Sales, Brand Management, Corporate Communications, Market Research and Customer Relationship Management. Sanjeev has an MBA from IMT Ghaziabad and a degree in economics.

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